“Historic NEW chapter as The People of Britain reclaim their VOICE”
The shock divide – was unexpected. A quick retreat would be “knee-jerking,” on the road to freedom for the United Kingdom. A destiny “The People” believe to be a right to determine within their own borders.
The BIG question now is, what is likely to happen over the coming days, weeks, months and years?
We are dealing with a situation that has not been tried and tested, and the biggest concern is the uncertainty, so what can we expect to happen?
Firstly, we will not be leaving the EU immediately. The Prime Minister David Cameron has to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and that then sets a clock running for two years, which is the time period we have to exit the European Union. Once this process is started and the Article is activated, there will be no way back into the EU unless there is a majority consensus from the other EU member states.
Initial hours and days…
This morning, we heard an address from David Cameron to the UK confirming he,”would steady the ship,” but he did not want to take on the role as Captain, announcing, “what Britain needs now, is fresh leadership.” He will then also be addressing parliament in the coming days. There were calls for him to step down immediately as the UK population voted against him, but it is thought likely that he will continue to see out the full term which would end in 2020, even when Cameron portrayed a man who’s decision had already been made, asking for a new leader to be in place by October of this year.
Expect the financial markets to react with the strength of the pound weakening against the USD and other currencies and the FTSE100 and European markets are likely to follow suit for a period of time while the news sinks in and people wait for there to be a clear way forward.
Also expect there to be some other European politicians taking steps to mute their own EU referendums, possibly from Netherlands and Austria where anti-EU supporting political parties are starting to gain more influence.
I would also expect the UK to be put under pressure to outline where we stand on key issues such as trade movements between countries and also free movement to put the EU citizens living in the UK as expats at ease that they are not going to be deported.
Weeks and Months…
This is going to be an important time, so do not expect an immediate activation of the Lisbon treaty. There will be key ‘soft’ negotiations with the key EU member states on issues such as trade to try to ensure that there is a friendly compromise. It could also mean of course that the UK now decides to completely write the EU out of its laws and have a ‘what the UK says, goes’ attitude, although it is highly unlikely this will happen.
Expect the ‘pin’ to be pulled on Article 50 within the next 4 weeks. That is when we will negotiate with Brussels the terms of our exit from the EU and putting behind us the European Communities Act. Within two years the UK will not be part of the EU treaties. This can of course be extended if negotiations have not been concluded and if the 27 member states agree to an extension.
It is widely anticipated that we will remain in the single market from the point of view of allowing EU citizens to work here and still pay some money into the EU, but who will lead our negotiations? David Cameron wanted to stay in Europe so is he the best person? Will Michael Gove or George Osborne be part of it? This remains to be seen.
There are going to be a lot of negotiations over the next two years, mainly centered around trade and how the UK will interact with the EU on various different levels. Undoubtedly, there will be calls from Scotland to push forward with a second England/Scotland referendum as the Scottish voted to remain in the EU and will argue that they are now being forced out of the EU against their will.
There may also be other referendums from other parts of Europe that will need to be looked at in isolation.
So lots to think about, lots to do and without a doubt there is going to be a lot of short term uncertainty. With a 52% – 48% vote, and a campaign that seems to have been centered around the negatives of remaining or leaving and not the positives.
There will be some very interesting times ahead for sure!